تأثير المخاطر الجيوسياسية العالمية على سعر الصرف الحقيقي في مصر

Faculty Commerce Year: 2025
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: مجلة البحوث التجارية كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق Volume:
Keywords : تأثير المخاطر الجيوسياسية العالمية , , الصرف الحقيقي    
Abstract:
The study aims to identify the impact of global geopolitical risks (GPR) as well as the impact of actual events and future threats of global geopolitical risks on the real exchange rate of the Egyptian pound during the period from 1991 to 2023. The study relied on the Bounds Testing Approach within the framework of the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for cointegration. The study found that global geopolitical risks have a significant negative impact on the real exchange rate of the Egyptian pound in both the long and short terms. It was determined that actual risks are the only ones affecting the real exchange rate of the pound, while the impact of future threats from global geopolitical risks is not significant. Additionally, the study concluded that money supply, trade openness, and real interest rates have a significant negative effect on the real exchange rate of the pound, while the variables of real GDP, debt servicing, and government spending have a significant positive effect on the real exchange rate of the Egyptian pound in both the long and short terms.
   
     
 
       

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