تأثير المخاطر الجيوسياسية العالمية على سعر الصرف الحقيقي في مصر

Faculty Commerce Year: 2025
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: مجلة البحوث التجارية كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق Volume:
Keywords : تأثير المخاطر الجيوسياسية العالمية , , الصرف الحقيقي    
Abstract:
The study aims to identify the impact of global geopolitical risks (GPR) as well as the impact of actual events and future threats of global geopolitical risks on the real exchange rate of the Egyptian pound during the period from 1991 to 2023. The study relied on the Bounds Testing Approach within the framework of the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for cointegration. The study found that global geopolitical risks have a significant negative impact on the real exchange rate of the Egyptian pound in both the long and short terms. It was determined that actual risks are the only ones affecting the real exchange rate of the pound, while the impact of future threats from global geopolitical risks is not significant. Additionally, the study concluded that money supply, trade openness, and real interest rates have a significant negative effect on the real exchange rate of the pound, while the variables of real GDP, debt servicing, and government spending have a significant positive effect on the real exchange rate of the Egyptian pound in both the long and short terms.
   
     
 
       

Author Related Publications

  • esam elsayed abdelraaof metwally, "Does Financial Globalization Enhance Economic Growth in Egypt", كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق, 2022 More
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  • esam elsayed abdelraaof metwally, "The Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Egypt", كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق, 2024 More
  • esam elsayed abdelraaof metwally, "قياس اثر الاستثمار الأجنبي المباشر على التنمية الصناعية المستدامة في مصر", كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق, 2025 More
  • esam elsayed abdelraaof metwally, "أثر تطبيق الاقتصاد السلوكي على قطاع الطاقة في مصر", كلية التجارة - جامعة الزقازيق, 2025 More

Department Related Publications

  • Dina Nabil Mohammed Ahmed Shahwani, "THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT CORRIDOR IN EGYPT: AN INTERREGIONAL CGE APPROACH", University of Sao Paulo Brazil, 2015 More
  • Mahmoud Ibrahiem Aboelewn, "الاقتصاد الإريتـري : بين تعويض النمو المفتقد والحاجة للتمـويل", كلية التجارة جامعة الزقازيق, 1995 More
  • Iyad Mohammed Attia Attia, "Revisiting the Relationship between Economic growth and Inflation in Egypt: Evidence from Structure Break Testing", مجلة الدراسات والبحوث التجارية بكلية التجارة جامعة بنها, 2016 More
  • Ahmed Hamed Attia Ahmed Elsayed, "On the transmission of spillover risks between the housing market, the mortgage and equity REITs markets, and the stock market", Elsevier, 2018 More
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