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تقدير استجابة معدل التضخم للصدمات غير المتماثلة في سعر الصرف الحقيقي وسعر النفط بالتطبيق على الاقتصاد المصري
Faculty
Commerce
Year:
2025
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
مجلة البحوث التجارية- كلية التجارة- جامعة الزقازيق كلية التجارة-جامعة الزقازيق
Volume:
Keywords :
تقدير استجابة معدل التضخم للصدمات , المتماثلة
Abstract:
The Egyptian economy has recently witnessed a successive rise in inflation rates, exceeding all historical levels, affecting all sectors of the national economy. Therefore, the current study aimed to evaluate the response of domestic inflation rates to exogenous shocks, which represented in changes in both the real exchange rate and oil prices. It also aimed to assess the performance of monetary and fiscal policies in containing inflationary trends. To achieve the study's objective, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear distributed lag (NARDL) model was applied to quarterly data from (2005Q2-2024Q1). This is to monitor the short-term dynamics and long-term relationships between the inflation rate and the internal and external factors affecting it. They’re, the real exchange rate, oil prices, discount rate, and short-term government debt. The results revealed statistically significant asymmetric effects of the real exchange rate on inflation in both the short and long runs. The asymmetry in the impact of oil prices on inflation was also verified. The results showed that the transmission of global oil prices to domestic inflation rates did not achieve the expected results due to the subsidies policies pursued by successive governments, in addition to the inflexibility of domestic price in their downward trends. The results also revealed the contribution of fiscal policy to the inflation rates achieved at a statistically significant level of 5%. The results also indicated that restrictive monetary policies, represented by raising the discount rate, did not succeed in reducing the inflation rate during the study period.
Author Related Publications
Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem, "The impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Wage inequality in Egypt’s industry sector", كلية التجارة-جامعة الزقازيق, 2022
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Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem, "Does Banking development promote real sector growth? Evidence from Egypt", كلية التجارة-جامعة طنطا, 2023
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Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem, "فاعلية السياسة المالية في تحقيق الاستقرار الاقتصادي في إطار الشفافية المالية", كلية التجارة-جامعة الزقازيق, 2024
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Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem, "تقييم شفافية الموازنة العامة المصرية في ضوء المعايير الدولية دراسة تحليلية", كلية التجارة-جامعة الزقازيق, 2025
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Nahla Fathy Mohamed Amien Salem, "الديون السيادية والنمو الاقتصادي والجودة المؤسسية دلائل من الدول النامية خلال الفترة من 2006-2023.", كلية التجارة-جامعة الاسكندرية, 2025
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Department Related Publications
Khaerea Abdelfattah Abdelaziz Mahmoud, "Climate Changes and Comparative Advantage of Livestock Sector in Egypt", مجلة جامعة الملك عبد العزيز –الإقتصاد والإدارة, 2016
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Khaerea Abdelfattah Abdelaziz Mahmoud, "Economics of Agricultural Investment in the reclaimed land : " case study of desert farm in misr – elwahat road area "", مصر المعاصرة –العدد501 - يناير 2011, 2011
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Khaerea Abdelfattah Abdelaziz Mahmoud, "The Effect of Economies of Scale on Dates Production Efficiency in Libya.", المجلة العربية للإدارة, 2012
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Ramy Hosny Mahfouz Elazhary, "The Role of Inclusive Growth in Egyptian Economy", Mansoura University and Delta University of Science and Technology, 2012
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Iyad Mohammed Attia Attia, "Determinants of Financial Development: Time series evidence from Egypt", جامعة الزقازيق, 2013
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