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Analyzing Egypt’s Debt Sustainability Using SimSIP Debt: The Debt Projection Module
Faculty
Commerce
Year:
2019
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
The Journal Of American Science http://www.jofamericanscience.org
Volume:
Keywords :
Analyzing Egypt’s Debt Sustainability Using SimSIP
Abstract:
Debt sustainability is a critical factor and a key consideration for decision making with respect to all public projects and economic policies. In this econometric study, we use the debt projection module of SimSIP (Simulations for social Indicators and poverty) Debt to simulate the evolution of Egypt’s public debt over a 15-year horizon (from the fiscal year 2016 to the fiscal year 2031) by using dynamic analyses of the variables under three different macroeconomic scenarios and two different financing scenarios of an ambitious government-Ied investment strategy. The study results show that the debt is not sustainable. According to the results of the optimistic macroeconomic scenario, Egypt's achievement of financial sustainability in the medium-term depends on increasing its economic growth rate to at least 10% and improving its balance of payments situation by increasing the growth rate of exports and reducing imports, in addition to reducing the deficit of the State budget through a contractionary fiscal policy, and targeting the appreciation of local currency; besides the reduction of the inflation rate to no more than 3%.
Author Related Publications
Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb, "العــوامـــل المـؤثــرة علـى الأمـن الغـذائي فـي مصر بمفهــومه الشــامـل", كلية الزراعة ، جامعة الزقازيق, 2014
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Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb, "Impact of climate change on food production in the Middle East and North Africa region", كلية الاقتصاد و العلوم السياسية, 2017
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Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb, "The relationship between economic growth and environment in the MENA Region: An environmental Kuznets curve", كلية التجارة و إدارة الأعمال، جامعة حلوان, 2017
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Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb, "الآثار الاقتصادية المتوقعة لبناء سد النهضة الإثيوبي على محصول الأرز المصري", كلية الزراعة جامعة الزقازيق, 2015
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Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb, "The role of technical progress in promoting economic growth in the MENA region", كلية التجارة ، جامعة عين شمس, 2018
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Department Related Publications
Hebatallah Ahmed Yehya Elhoseny Rizk, "The impact of FDI on income inequality in Egypt", springer, 2022
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Noha Mahmoud Ashraf Mohamed Zaitoun, "Effects of different feeding regimens with protease supplementation on growth, amino acid digestibility, economic efficiency, blood biochemical parameters, and intestinal histology in broiler chickens", Springer nature, 2021
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Amira Tohamy Mohamed Eltayb, "العــوامـــل المـؤثــرة علـى الأمـن الغـذائي فـي مصر بمفهــومه الشــامـل", كلية الزراعة ، جامعة الزقازيق, 2014
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Khaerea Abdelfattah Abdelaziz Mahmoud, "Climate Changes and Comparative Advantage of Livestock Sector in Egypt", مجلة جامعة الملك عبد العزيز –الإقتصاد والإدارة, 2016
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Khaerea Abdelfattah Abdelaziz Mahmoud, "Mechanism of Improving Performance and Enhancing Economic Efficiency in Railroad Sector in Egypt", الدراسات والبحوث التجارية –جامعة بنها – العدد الثانى – المجلد الثانى – السنة الحادية والثلاثون – يوليو 2012, 2012
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