الآثار الاقتصادية المتوقعة لبناء سد النهضة الإثيوبي على محصول الأرز المصري

Faculty Commerce Year: 2015
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: مجلة الزقازيق للبحوث الزراعية كلية الزراعة جامعة الزقازيق Volume:
Keywords : الآثار الاقتصادية المتوقعة لبناء , النهضة الإثيوبي    
Abstract:
Water is the issue of the most important strategic issues facing Egypt, where Egypt is characterized by limited water resources, and about 95% of their water resources come from outside (85% of which comes from Ethiopia), so The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will affect heavily on Egypt's share of Nile water, and the deficit was expected in the flowing water of between 5 billion cubic meters and 10 billion cubic meters, and the study aims to measure and estimate the economic effects resulting from activation of the Renaissance Dam By estimating a range of economic indicators, namely: efficiency in the allocation of economic resources in rice production and economic welfare and returns achieved at the national level before activating the dam, and assess these indicators in the event of a deficit of 5 billion cubic meters and in the event of a deficit by 10 billion cubic meters, according to the expected range of alternatives, namely: the absence of government intervention, And the case of government interference equitable distribution of water on agricultural land along the canals and the case of government interference equitable distribution of water in some irrigations without the other , and according to three possibilities: the low production without consumption, and reduced production and consumption together, and rising farm price. To achieve these goals a partial equilibrium model has been used on monetary values OF rice, AND according to virtual water approach after conversion of monetary values to the virtual water values. It was found that the activation of the Renaissance Dam negative impact on economic efficiency indicators especially with the increase in the deficit in the water flowing from 5 billion to 10 billion cubic meters, and has a negative impact on the economic welfare indicators and on the returns achieved on the national level. The study recommends the need to provide good management of limited water resources which will become more limited and the scarcity after activating the dam Renaissance, and interest in improving traditional irrigation followed and developed systems and resort expansion in resource additional water desalination projects and the need to focus on the concept of virtual water so that it is production and export of low water requirements and import high water requirements of crops.
   
     
 
       

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