This study seeks to examine the econometric economic impacts of climate change on the food system in Egypt by quantifying the effects of a set of climatic variables—namely average maximum temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall—together with selected economic and agricultural factors, on the Food Production Index as a key indicator of the evolution of the Egyptian food system. The significance of the study arises from the increasing intensity of climate variability and the growing pressures it exerts on agricultural production and food security.The study utilises annual time-series data spanning the period 1961–2023 and adopts the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modelling framework. The results of the bounds testing procedure provide robust evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the Food Production Index and the climatic and economic variables, with an F-statistic of approximately 7.70, exceeding the upper critical bound at the 1 per cent significance level, thereby confirming the presence of cointegration among the variables. In the long run, the results indicate a positive and statistically significant association between rainfall and the Food Production Index, whereby a 1 per cent increase in rainfall leads to an increase in food production of approximately 1.02 per cent. Furthermore, the proportion of arable land emerges as one of the most important structural determinants of food production, as a 1 per cent expansion in arable land results in an increase of about 52.48 per cent in the Food Production Index. This finding highlights the pivotal role of horizontal agricultural expansion in strengthening the Egyptian food system. By contrast, the effect of average maximum temperature is negative but statistically insignificant, suggesting a limited long-run impact. The findings also reveal a statistically significant inverse relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and food production, whereby a 1 per cent increase in per capita income leads to a decline of approximately 0.03 per cent in the Food Production Index. This result reflects ongoing structural changes within the Egyptian economy and a growing relative reliance on food imports. In the short run, the Error Correction Model (ECM) indicates that the error correction term is negative and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level, with an estimated coefficient of -0.105779. This implies that approximately 10.58 per cent of short-run disequilibria in the Egyptian food system are corrected annually, with convergence towards the long-run equilibrium path occurring over an estimated adjustment period of around 9.45 years. Short-run dynamics further demonstrate positive and statistically significant effects of rainfall, while the impacts of other variables are mixed and distributed across different lag lengths. The study concludes that climate change-particularly rainfall patterns-alongside structural factors related to agricultural land availability, constitutes the most influential determinants shaping the trajectory of the Egyptian food system. Conclusively, The results of the econometric model estimated using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology underscore the need to adopt integrated policy frameworks aimed at enhancing the sustainability of the food system in Egypt. The findings demonstrate that rainfall constitutes the most influential climatic determinant of food production, which calls for prioritising policies that promote efficient water resource management, as well as improving rainfall harvesting systems and their utilisation in agricultural activities. Moreover, the negative sign associated with the coefficient of maximum temperature, despite its lack of statistical significance, signals potential climate-related risks. This highlights the importance of adopting precautionary adaptation policies designed to mitigate the adverse effects of heat stress on agricultural production. From an economic perspective, the statistically significant inverse relationship between per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and food production points to a structural imbalance in the allocation of the gains from economic growth. This finding necessitates a reorientation of economic policies towards supporting domestic agricultural investment and reducing reliance on food imports. In agricultural terms, the results confirm the strong positive long-run effect of the share of arable land on food production, thereby supporting the continuation of carefully planned horizontal agricultural expansion. At the same time, the findings emphasise the need to focus on enhancing agricultural value added and productivity, rather than pursuing inefficient quantitative expansion. Finally, the relatively low magnitude of the error correction coefficient reflects the limited capacity of the food system to adjust rapidly to shocks. This underscores the importance of implementing long-term, consistent food and agricultural policies, alongside strengthening institutional coordination among climate, economic, and agricultural policies, in order to achieve sustainable food security. Keywords: Climate change, Food system, Egypt , ARDL Model, Error Correction Model (ECM).