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Risk-indexed artificial neural network for predicting duration and cost of irrigation canal-lining projects using survey-based calibration and python validation
Faculty
Engineering
Year:
2025
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Scientific Reports Springer Nature
Volume:
Keywords :
Risk-indexed artificial neural network , predicting duration
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a risk-driven predictive model for estimating project duration and cost in irrigation canal lining projects, where uncertainties often lead to delays and budget overruns. Ninety-three factors were first reduced to twenty using AHP–RII (Cronbach’s ). A multi-layer perceptron (128–64–32, ReLU, Adam, early stopping) was trained on 5000 simulated scenarios and validated on eight projects with leave-one-project-out cross-validation. The model had (training), 0.82 (testing), and made errors within the limits of 0.87 months (time) and EGP 102,500 (cost) on average.The developed model was deployed as a Python-based desktop application, enabling engineers and planners to generate accurate time and cost forecasts during early project stages. This research introduces an integrated ANN-based framework that combines expert-driven risk assessment with machine learning, providing a practical decision-support tool for infrastructure projects.
Author Related Publications
Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Management of Construction Cost Contingency Covering Upside and Downside Risks.", Alexandria Engineering Journal (AEJ),, 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Modelling the Financial Performance of Construction Companies Using Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm.", Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (CJCE), 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Estimating Cost Contingency for Highway Construction Projects Using Analytic Hierarchy Processes.", International Journal of Computer Science Issues (IJCSI), 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Measuring Important Factors Affecting Construction Projects Duration", Journal of Al Azhar Univ. Eng. Sector, 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Reducing Construction Disputes through Effective Claims Management.", American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture (AJCEA), Science and Education Publishing,, 2014
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Department Related Publications
Ahmed Elsayed Ali Mahmoud, "An Integrated Sustainable Construction Project’s Critical Success Factors (ISCSFs)", Sustainable Engineering and Science, 2021
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Gamal Saber Ahmed Elfiky, "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021
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Mohammed Ahmed Ali Alashkar , "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Management of Construction Cost Contingency Covering Upside and Downside Risks.", Alexandria Engineering Journal (AEJ),, 2014
More
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