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مجلة الزقازيق للبحوث الزراعية
كلية الزراعة جامعة الزقازيق
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| Abstract: |
Oil crops are considered important crops because the demand for them is derived from the demand of production and consumption of vegetable oils. This research aimed to identify the current and future status of vegetable oil consumption in Egypt by estimating the size of the vegetable oil gap and its future expectations to raise the efficiency of the economic and technical performance of vegetable oils in Egypt. This study relied on both descriptive and quantitative methods represented by averages, percentages, annual growth rate, and time trend equations for determining data and presenting its results. In addition, this research relied on estimating the ARIMA model to forecast the future of vegetable oil gap by relying on secondary data published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Economic Affairs Sector, and various issues of food balance bulletins during the period from (2007-2021). The most important results were reached that maize crop ranked the first place in both of production, followed by olives which ranked the second place, then the production of cotton seeds, peanut seeds and sesame seeds, while the lowest production of soybeans and sunflower seeds. While olive crop ranked first in the productivity, followed by maize in the second rank, then cotton seeds and sesame seeds were the least in productivity during the period (2007-2021). The quantity of soybean oil production ranked first and contributed the largest share in producing vegetable oils during the study period (2007-2021), followed by production quantity of cotton seed oil, then production quantity of sunflower oil and olive oil, while the production quantity of maize oil came in the last rank. The consumption quantity of palm oil ranked first that contributed with the largest share in consuming of vegetable oils during the study period (2007-2021), followed by the consumption quantity of soybean oil, then sunflower oil and cotton seed oil, while olive oil came in the last rank. By reviewing the results of forecasting of the food gap of vegetable oils, it is cleared that the increasing of gap between local production and national consumption is evident, which indicates the need for the state to make efforts to developed plans and programs to increase production from its various sources. Not only rationalizing consumption but also reducing the increase of vegetable oils gap in Egypt during the study period.
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