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Forecasting Sheep Lamb Productivity Using Short-Term Time Series: A Comparison Of ARIMA, ETS, and Neural Network Autoregressive Models.
Faculty
Veterinary Medicine
Year:
2025
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Fatma Desouky Mohamed Abdallah
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Alexandria Journal of Veterinary Sciences Alexandria university
Volume:
Keywords :
Forecasting Sheep Lamb Productivity Using Short-Term
Abstract:
Monitoring animal productivity is a crucial aspect of farm management and decisionmaking. Sheep breeding is of utmost importance to the agricultural and veterinary industries. However, unlike veterinary epidemiology, applying forecasting models to predict animal productivity remains less explored, and developing reliable predictive modelling is one of the necessary strategies in this regard. This study addresses this gap by focusing on lamb production. To forecast lamb production trends accurately, this study examines the effectiveness of traditional time-series models ARIMA and ETS alongside the neural network autoregressive (NNAR) model, a machine learning-based approach, to identify the most suitable forecasting method. Also, the study aimed to address a critical question about the reliability of predicting productivity with short-time series. The models are trained and evaluated using yearly lamb production data collected from 2003 to 2022. The model exhibiting the lowest corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) was identified as the optimal forecasting model. Its accuracy was confirmed using the lowest mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root mean square error (RMSE). Our findings indicate that among the evaluated models, NNAR yielded the most accurate forecasts, reflected in its minimal MAPE and RMSE values compared to ARIMA and ETS. This highlights its superior predictive performance for short time series in annual sheep production. While ARIMA outperformed ETS on most evaluation metrics, NNAR consistently delivered the best results. Notably, NNAR maintained high accuracy despite the small sample size (20 observations), whereas ARIMA may require a larger dataset to perform optimally. Overall, these models are suitable for time series analysis and hold promises for broader application in animal science to enhance forecasting and decisionmaking.
Author Related Publications
Fatma Desouky Mohamed Abdallah, "Application of Different Biostatistical Methods in Biological Data Analysis", Zagazig Veterinary Journal, ©Faculty of Veterinay Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511, Egypt. Volume 47, Number 2, p. XXX, June 2019 DOI: 10.21608/zvj, 2019
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Fatma Desouky Mohamed Abdallah, "Application of Different Biostatistical Methods in Biological Data Analysis", Zagazig Veterinary Journal, ©Faculty of Veterinay Medicine, Zagazig University, 44511, Egypt. Volume 47, Number 2, p. XXX, June 2019 DOI: 10.21608/zvj, 2019
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Fatma Desouky Mohamed Abdallah, "Statistical Modelling of Categorical Outcome with More than Two Nominal Categories", American Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 2018, Vol. 6, No. 6, 262-265 Available online at http://pubs.sciepub.com/ajams/6/6/7 ©Science , 2018
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Fatma Desouky Mohamed Abdallah, "Parametric Survival Models for Predicting of Pregnancy in Friesian Cattle", International Journal of Statistics and Applications 2018, 8(3): 129-132 DOI: 10.5923/j.statistics.20180803.03, 2018
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Fatma Desouky Mohamed Abdallah, "Role of Time Series Analysis in Forecasting Egg Production Depending on ARIMA Model", Applied Mathematics 2019, 9(1): 1-5 DOI: 10.5923/j.am.20190901.01, 2019
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Department Related Publications
Khairy Mohamed Albayoumi Mohamed, "دراسات على الجاموس المصرى"1- مقاييس الجسم وعلاقتها ببعض الصفات الإقتصادية Studies on Egyptian Buffaloes I. Body measurement as related to some economic traits", مجلة الإسكندرية للعلوم البيطرية – العدد (5) – رقم (2) – 1989, 1989
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Khairy Mohamed Albayoumi Mohamed, "تأثير بعض العوامل البيئية والوراثيه على مكونات اللبن لأبقار الفريزيان فى مصر Effect of some environmental and genetic factors on milk constitutes of Friesian cows in Egypt", مجلة الزقازيق للبحوث الزراعية – العدد (16) – رقم (2) – 1989, 1989
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Khairy Mohamed Albayoumi Mohamed, "دراسات على أبقار الفريزيان فى مصر "1- نمط النمو فى عجول الفريزيان من الولادة حتى عمر 12 شهر." "Studies on Friesian cattle in Egypt" "I. Growth pattern in Friesian calves from birth to tweleve month of age."", مجلة الزقازيق البيطرية – العدد (17) – رقم (2) – 1989., 1989
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Khairy Mohamed Albayoumi Mohamed, "تأثير عدد الخلفه وكثافة اعداد التربية على أوزان الجسم قبل وبعد الفطام فى الأرنب النيوزيلاندى الأبيض." Effect of litter size and stocking density on body weight of pre and post- weaning New Zealand White rabbits", المجلة الطبية البيطرية- الجيزة – كلية الطب البيطرى – جامعة القاهرة , 1993
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