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Assessing the Impact of Long-Term Drought on Water Resources in Arid Regions Under Climate Change Conditions.
Faculty
Art
Year:
2025
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Mohammed Mahdy
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
vol 114. Springer
Volume:
Keywords :
Assessing , Impact , Long-Term Drought , Water Resources
Abstract:
Climate change is accelerating due to increased human activities and the associated increase in the greenhouse gas emissions. Climate change has impacted the parameters of the hydrologic cycle, including temperature, wind and precipitation patterns. Climate change might affect hydrological regimes and increase the likeli-hood of extreme events such as extended drought and flash floods. The Middle East is among the most vulnerable areas to climate change. The UAE, like other countries in the Middle East, is vulnerable to extreme weather events including drought and flood. Climate change represents a main challenge for water resources management in many countries. The drought is a natural hazard that might become more frequent under changing weather conditions. Drought analysis is usually conducted using different drought indices, but the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most used method and is recommended by the World Meteorological Organization for monitoring drought conditions in various areas across the world. This study aims to assess the long-term drought in the northern area of UAE using SPI based onrecorded monthly rainfall data from land stations for a period of 40 years from 1980 to 2020. SPI-12 months were calculated using DrinC to examine meteorological drought that may affect water resources. Four stations have been selected for rainfall trend and SPI analysis. Rainfall trends analysis showed that Masafi station had the highest annual rainfall (134.7 mm) and Um Ghafa station had the lowest (43.0 mm). Rainfall trend analysis showed a significant decline at most of the stations, possibly due to climate change in the last two decades. According to SPI-12 results, moderate droughts occurred in 2001 and 2005, severe droughts occurred in 2010 and 2011, while extreme droughts occurred in 2012 and 2016. The driest years were 2005, 2010, 2012, and 2016 and the estimated average return period is 3–4 years. All the studied stations had a decreasing trend in rainfall, indicating that climate change would have a significant impact on the UAE’s water resources and more drought periods are expected. The findings of the study will allow for proper management of the UAE’s water resources and adaptation to climate change.
Author Related Publications
Mohammed Mahdy , "ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE SHORELINE OF ALEXANDRIA CITY – RECREATION AREA", Public Recreation and Landscape Protection - With Environment Hand in Hand… Proceedings of the 13th Conference, 2022
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Mohammed Mahdy , "Insight into land cover dynamics and water challenges under anthropogenic and climatic changes in the eastern Nile Delta: Inference from remote sensing and GIS data", Elsevier, 2023
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Mohammed Mahdy , "Monitoring coastal changes in Port Said, Egypt using multi-temporal satellite imagery and GIS-DSAS.", Springer, 2025
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Mohammed Mahdy , "Historical Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Shoreline Change at the Nile Delta Using RS Data and GIS with the DSAS Tool", MDPI, 2023
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Mohammed Mahdy , "Rainfall forecasting in arid regions in response to climate change using ARIMA and remote sensing", Taylor & francis, 2024
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