التحليل القياسي للصادرات المصرية من الموالح والالبان باستخدام نموذج الجاذبية

Faculty Agriculture Year: 2022
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: مجلة العلوم البيئية والزراعية جامعه دمنهور Volume:
Keywords : التحليل القياسي للصادرات المصرية , الموالح والالبان    
Abstract:
The study mainly aimed at the econometric analysis of Egyptian agricultural exports of milk and citrus fruits to the Arab markets using the gravity model during the period 2000-2020, and the study relied on published and unpublished secondary data from regional and international organizations concerned with agricultural sector statistics, especially agricultural intra-trade. The results of the study showed that the dairy and citrus groups are the most important groups exporting from Egypt to the Arab markets according to the results of measuring the commodity concentration index, and it turned out that the best unbiased estimated model (BLUE) for the gravity model for Egypt's exports from the dairy and citrus groups to the Arab countries is the "Park's Model" because it showed the lowest value of the sum square errors (SSE) with the highest value of the coefficient of determination, The exchange rate response coefficient for Egyptian exports of the aggregate value of dairy products and citrus to the Arab markets was negative, meaning that the devaluation of the Egyptian currency leads to a decrease in the prices of Egyptian exports with other countries in the global market, because the gradual floating of Egyptian Pound (EGP) , because it makes the price of the Egyptian product less expensive in the global markets, in general, and in the Arab markets in particular, both dairy products and Egyptian citrus, and as expected, the increase in Egypt's GDP as an exporter of Arab markets which leads to an increase in Egyptian exports of milk and citrus at statistically significant rates. Regarding the impact of international trade agreements, it was found that the GAFTA agreement had a positive and statistically significant impact on Egypt's dairy and citrus exports, while bilateral agreements had a statistically significant negative impact on Egypt's exports of milk and citrus. This is due to the fact that the bilateral agreements did not include the implementation of the agreement on these main exportable commodities, whose customs duties are a reasonable source of weight in the Egyptian government revenues, and it was found that the signal of the distance variable between the two countries is negative and statistically significant, as the distance between the two countries reflects the costs of logistics, including transportation costs. The longer the distance between exporting countries and importing ones, the lower is the value of exports to Arab countries while the shorter distance means a decrease in the logistical costs of exports of Egyptian agricultural commodities. Thus, the increase in agricultural exports to Arab countries.
   
     
 
       

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