Prediction of Construction Material Prices using ARIMA and Multiple Regression Models

Faculty Engineering Year: 2023
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: Asian Journal of Civil Engineering Springer Nature Volume:
Keywords : Prediction , Construction Material Prices using ARIMA    
Abstract:
Construction material prices (CMP) variations have become a major issue in properly budgeting construction projects. Inability to accurately forecast CMP volatility can also lead to price overestimation or underestimation. Enhancing the accuracy of predictions of CMP can also enhance the accuracy of predictions of total construction costs. The purpose of this study is to present a model for predicting construction material prices that assist decision-makers to make better decisions over the life cycle of a project. The price records for CMP namely; steel, cement, brick, ceramic, and gravel, and the indicators affecting them in Egypt were used for the prediction procedures. The practical methods for using the Box-Jenkins approach Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series and multiple regression models for forecasting building material prices are outlined in this research. Out-of-sample predictions are used to evaluate the provided model’s performance in predicting future prices. The models are compared according to the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE). The generated models show good results in predicting month-to-month variations in material prices, with MAPE ranging from 1.4 to 2.8 percent for the selected models. This research can assist both owners and contractors in improving their budgeting processes, and preparing more accurate cost estimates.
   
     
 
       

Author Related Publications

  • Soad hosny Anany Awadallah, "(Highway Environmental Pollution Index (HEPI", للإتحاد الدولى للطرق, 2013 More
  • Soad hosny Anany Awadallah, "Cost Pollution Trade-Off Optimization in Highway Construction", جامعة الأزهر, 2014 More
  • Soad hosny Anany Awadallah, "Investigating the Significance of material price indicators in the Egyptian construction market", ngzagazig university, faculty of engineeri, 2024 More
  • Soad hosny Anany Awadallah, "Manpower Motivation Factors and Theories in the Egyptian Construction Projects", Faculty of Engineering , Zagazig University, 2023 More
  • Soad hosny Anany Awadallah, "Causes of Reinforced Concrete Materials Waste in Construction Projects", faculty of engineering, zagazig university, 2022 More

Department Related Publications

  • Ahmed Elsayed Ali Mahmoud, "An Integrated Sustainable Construction Project’s Critical Success Factors (ISCSFs)", Sustainable Engineering and Science, 2021 More
  • Gamal Saber Ahmed Elfiky, "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021 More
  • Mohammed Ahmed Ali Alashkar , "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021 More
  • Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Management of Construction Cost Contingency Covering Upside and Downside Risks.", Alexandria Engineering Journal (AEJ),, 2014 More
Tweet