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Machine learning and deep learning models based grid search cross validation for short‑term solar irradiance forecasting
Faculty
Computer Science
Year:
2024
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Doaa El-Shahat Barakat Mohammed
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Journal of Big Data Springer International Publishing
Volume:
Keywords :
Machine learning , deep learning models based grid
Abstract:
In late 2023, the United Nations conference on climate change (COP28), which was held in Dubai, encouraged a quick move from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Solar energy is one of the most promising forms of energy that is both sustainable and renewable. Generally, photovoltaic systems transform solar irradiance into electricity. Unfortunately, instability and intermittency in solar radiation can lead to interruptions in electricity production. The accurate forecasting of solar irradiance guarantees sustainable power production even when solar irradiance is not present. Batteries can store solar energy to be used during periods of solar absence. Additionally, deterministic models take into account the specification of technical PV systems and may be not accurate for low solar irradiance. This paper presents a comparative study for the most common Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms employed for short-term solar irradiance forecasting. The dataset was gathered in Islamabad during a five-year period, from 2015 to 2019, at hourly intervals with accurate meteorological sensors. Furthermore, the Grid Search Cross Validation (GSCV) with five folds is introduced to ML and DL models for optimizing the hyperparameters of these models. Several performance metrics are used to assess the algorithms, such as the Adjusted R2 score, Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE). The statistical analysis shows that CNN-LSTM outperforms its counterparts of nine well-known DL models with Adjusted R2 score value of 0.984. For ML algorithms, gradient boosting regression is an effective forecasting method with Adjusted R2 score value of 0.962, beating its rivals of six ML models. Furthermore, SHAP and LIME are examples of explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) utilized for understanding the reasons behind the obtained results.
Author Related Publications
Doaa El-Shahat Barakat Mohammed, "Solving 0–1 knapsack problem by binary flower pollination algorithm", Springer, 2018
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Doaa El-Shahat Barakat Mohammed, "A modified flower pollination algorithm for the multidimensional knapsack problem: human-centric decision making", Springer, 2017
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Doaa El-Shahat Barakat Mohammed, "Integrating the whale algorithm with Tabu search for quadratic assignment problem: A new approach for locating hospital departments", Elsevier, 2018
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Doaa El-Shahat Barakat Mohammed, "A hybrid whale optimization algorithm based on local search strategy for the permutation flow shop scheduling problem", North-Holland, 2018
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Doaa El-Shahat Barakat Mohammed, "A modified nature inspired meta-heuristic whale optimization algorithm for solving 0–1 knapsack problem", Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2017
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Department Related Publications
Mohammed Abdel Basset Metwally Attia, "Discrete greedy flower pollination algorithm for spherical traveling salesman problem", Springer, 2019
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Mohammed Abdel Basset Metwally Attia, "A New Hybrid Flower Pollination Algorithm for Solving Constrained Global Optimization Problems", Natural Sciences Publishing Cor., 2014
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Saber Mohamed, "Training and Testing a Self-Adaptive Multi-Operator Evolutionary Algorithm for Constrained Optimization", ELSEVEIR, 2015
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Saber Mohamed, "An Improved Self-Adaptive Differential Evolution Algorithm for Optimization Problems", IEEE, 2013
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Saber Mohamed, "Differential Evolution with Dynamic Parameters Selection for Optimization Problems", IEEE, 2014
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