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Predicting construction equipment resale price: machine learning model
Faculty
Engineering
Year:
2024
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
Authors:
Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management Emerald Publishing Limited
Volume:
Keywords :
Predicting construction equipment resale price: machine
Abstract:
Purpose The equipment resale price plays an important role in calculating the optimum time for equipment replacement. Some of the existing models that predict the equipment resale price do not take many of the influencing factors on the resale price into account. Other models consider more factors that influence equipment resale price, but they still with low accuracy because of the modeling techniques that were used. An easy tool is required to help in forecasting the resale price and support efficient decisions for equipment replacement. This research presents a machine learning (ML) computer model helping in forecasting accurately the equipment resale price. Design/methodology/approach A measuring method for the influencing factors that have impacts on the equipment resale price was determined. The values of those factors were measured for 1,700 pieces of equipment and their corresponding resale price. The data were used to develop a ML model that covers three types of equipment (loaders, excavators and bulldozers). The methodology used to develop the model applied three ML algorithms: the random forest regressor, extra trees regressor and decision tree regressor, to find an accurate model for the equipment resale price. The three algorithms were verified and tested with data of 340 pieces of equipment. Findings Using a large number of data to train the ML model resulted in a high-accuracy predicting model. The accuracy of the extra trees regressor algorithm was the highest among the three used algorithms to develop the ML model. The accuracy of the model is 98%. A computer interface is designed to make the use of the model easier. Originality/value The proposed model is accurate and makes it easy to predict the equipment resale price. The predicted resale price can be used to calculate equipment elements that are essential for developing a dependable equipment replacement plan. The proposed model was developed based on the most influencing factors on the equipment resale price and evaluation of those factors was done using reliable methods. The technique used to develop the model is the ML that proved its accuracy in modeling. The accuracy of the model, which is 98%, enhances the value of the model.
Author Related Publications
Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Management of Construction Cost Contingency Covering Upside and Downside Risks.", Alexandria Engineering Journal (AEJ),, 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Modelling the Financial Performance of Construction Companies Using Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm.", Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering (CJCE), 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Estimating Cost Contingency for Highway Construction Projects Using Analytic Hierarchy Processes.", International Journal of Computer Science Issues (IJCSI), 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Measuring Important Factors Affecting Construction Projects Duration", Journal of Al Azhar Univ. Eng. Sector, 2014
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Reducing Construction Disputes through Effective Claims Management.", American Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture (AJCEA), Science and Education Publishing,, 2014
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Ahmed Elsayed Ali Mahmoud, "An Integrated Sustainable Construction Project’s Critical Success Factors (ISCSFs)", Sustainable Engineering and Science, 2021
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Gamal Saber Ahmed Elfiky, "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021
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Mohammed Ahmed Ali Alashkar , "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021
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Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Management of Construction Cost Contingency Covering Upside and Downside Risks.", Alexandria Engineering Journal (AEJ),, 2014
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