جاذبية التجارة السلعية بين مصر ودول الاتحاد الأوروبي

This research aimed to measure the most important determinants of bilateral trade between Egypt and the European Union countries within the framework of the extended gravity model to explain the flows of bilateral trade using pooled or mixed data (short balanced Panel Data) for 27 partner countries of Egypt's trade from the European Union during the period (2003-2022). The decrease in the ratio of export coverage to imports led to a foreign trade gap, which in turn made Egypt's trade balance suffer from a chronic deficit with the external world in general and the European Union countries in particular. This necessitates researching for the most important factors affecting Egypt's exports to the European Union countries. The research addressed the evolution and indicators of the imbalance in Egypt's trade with the European Union countries, the model of the intensity of bilateral trade between Egypt and the European Union countries, in addition to the market share indicator. Some important factors that may affect Egypt's commodity trade with the European Union countries within the gravity model framework were identified. Through estimating the econometrics model of the research, it was possible to measure the influencing factors (determinants) in the flows of commodity trade between Egypt and the European Union countries on the export side. The estimation results showed the importance of variables such as Egypt's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the GDP of the European Union countries, the population of the European Union countries, the Egyptian exchange rate, as well as the feasibility of applying the gravity model to explain the flow of exports to the European Union countries, where the explanatory power of the model reached about 96.57%. These results call for urgent measures by Egypt to facilitate the access of Egyptian exports to the European Union countries, leading to an increase in the coverage rates of commodity exports to the European Union countries.