The aimof this study is to evaluate the potential changes in land cover and their impacts on rainwater harvesting systems, with a focus on Egypt's northwestern coastal region. To accomplish this objective, we utilized the kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS2) to estimate the effects of projected land use changes on runoff and sediment load. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of the model, with average Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of 0.75 for calibration and 0.77 for validation, indicating successful simulations. The analysis revealed that land use changes had minimal impact in the base scenario (S1), resulting in moderate fluctuations in estimated sediment load. Conversely, the supplementary scenarios (S2 and S3) exhibited more pronounced alterations in land use, resulting in significant deviations in model estimations, notably indicating a substantial reduction in soil erosion. The integration of land use change analysis with KINEROS2 modeling emphasizes the potential for implementing effective management strategies.