Historical Trend Analysis and Forecasting of Shoreline Change at the Nile Delta Using RS Data and GIS with the DSAS Tool

Faculty Engineering Year: 2023
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: Remote Sensing MDPI Volume: 15
Keywords : Historical Trend Analysis , Forecasting , Shoreline Change    
Abstract:
Coastal areas are increasingly endangered by climate change and associated sea level rise, which could have serious consequences, such as shoreline erosion and coastal city submergence. The current study aims to conduct a historical trend analysis (HTA) and predict the shoreline changes of the Nile Delta coasts. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software, with the GIS environment, is used for monitoring the shoreline changes using a number of statistical methods (SCE, NSM, EPR, WLR and LRR). Satellite images from 1974 to 2022 were collected and geometrically corrected using supervised classification to detect the shoreline change of the Nile Delta. The GIS was used for detecting and monitoring changes in the shoreline, as well as forecasting future changes in the shoreline for the next 10 and 20 years (2033–2043). The critical sections of the Nile Delta were identified, and a time series analysis of shoreline changes was conducted. For each section, linear equations were established to predict probable changes in the shoreline. Between 1974 and 2022, the shoreline of the Nile Delta moved inland in different directions due to coastal erosion, and predictions indicate that this erosion will continue until both 2033 and 2043, particularly affecting the Rosetta and Damietta sections. The erosion rate ranged between 30–60 and 10–25 m/year at Rosetta and Damietta, respectively, but at Manzala, it ranged between 8–15 m/year. Continued erosion of the Nile Delta shoreline could have severe consequences that could affect the inhabitants, economy, buildings, roads, railways, and ports. These areas need an integrated coastal management strategy which incorporates increasing consciousness, urban development, and the implementation of rules and adaptation plans. The results of the current study and forecasting the shoreline change could help in protecting such areas.
   
     
 
       

Author Related Publications

  • Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Investigating and Managing the Impact of Using Untreated Wastewater for Irrigation on the Groundwater Quality in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions", MPDI, 2021 More
  • Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Environmental risk assessment focused on water quality in the Laborec River watershed", Elsevier, 2021 More
  • Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Finite element modeling of seawater intrusion in Wadi Ham aquifer, UAE", Engineering Computations, 2012 More
  • Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Investigation of Some Potential Parameters and its Impacts on Saltwater Intrusion in Nile Delta Aquifer", Journal of Engineering Sciences, Faculty of Engineering, Assiut University, 2014 More
  • Hany Farahat Abdelhamid Attia , "Impact of over-pumping and sea level rise on seawater intrusion in Gaza aquifer", Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2015 More

Department Related Publications

  • Mohamed Abdelaziz Ibrahiem Azzaab, "رصد التغير العمراني باستخدام البيانات الرقمية للأقمار الصناعية ونظم المعلومات الجغرافية دراسة تطبيقية على مدينة الزقازيق – محافظة الشرقية", مجلة كلية الآداب-المنوفية, 2008 More
  • Ayman Abdelhamied Abdelkhalek , "الخصوبة فى مدينة العاشر من رمضان", ، مجلة كلية الآداب، جامعة بنها،, 2013 More
  • Samah Abdelkader Mohamed Abdelkader, "سياحة الرياضات المائية بمحافظة البحر الأحمر: دراسة جغرافية", مجلة كلية الآداب - جامعة الإسكندرية, 2013 More
  • Reda Mohamed Elsayed Sliem , "محددات التفاعل الجيوبولتيكي بين الجمهورية الإسلامية الإيرانية ودولة الكويت", معهد البحوث والدراسات العربية, 2016 More
  • Reda Mohamed Elsayed Sliem , "التجارة الخارجية المصرية مع الأسواق العربية (2000- 2014م) دراسة في التفاعل المكاني", الجمعية الجغرافية المصرية, 2016 More
Tweet