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Frontiers in Neurology
.Frontiers Media S.A
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Abstract: |
Background and purpose: Patients with ischemic stroke frequently develop
hemorrhagic transformation (HT), which could potentially worsen the
prognosis. The objectives of the current study were to determine the incidence
and predictors of HT, to evaluate predictor interaction, and to identify the
optimal predicting models.
Methods: A prospective study included 360 patients with ischemic stroke,
of whom 354 successfully continued the study. Patients were subjected to
thorough general and neurological examination and T2 diusion-weighted
MRI, at admission and 1 week later to determine the incidence of
HT. HT predictors were selected by a filter-based minimum redundancy
maximum relevance (mRMR) algorithm independent of model performance.
Severalmachine learning algorithms includingmultivariable logistic regression
classifier (LRC), support vector classifier (SVC), random forest classifier (RFC),
gradient boosting classifier (GBC), and multilayer perceptron classifier (MLPC)
were optimized for HT prediction in a randomly selected half of the sample
(training set) and tested in the other half of the sample (testing set). The model
predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operator characteristic
(ROC) and visualized by observing case distribution relative to the models’
predicted three-dimensional (3D) hypothesis spaces within the testing dataset
true feature space. The interaction between predictors was investigated using
generalized additive modeling (GAM).
Results: The incidence of HT in patients with ischemic stroke was 19.8%.
Infarction size, cerebral microbleeds (CMB), and the National Institute of
Health stroke scale (NIHSS) were identified as the best HT predictors.
RFC (AUC: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.85–0.95) and GBC (AUC: 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86–
0.95) demonstrated significantly superior performance compared to LRC
(AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.79–0.91) and MLPC (AUC: 0.85, 95% CI: 0.78–0.92).
SVC (AUC: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.85–0.94) outperformed LRC and MLPC but did
not reach statistical significance. LRC and MLPC did not show significant
dierences. The best models’ 3D hypothesis spaces demonstrated non-linear
decision boundaries suggesting an interaction between predictor variables.
GAM analysis demonstrated a linear and non-linear significant interaction
between NIHSS and CMB and between NIHSS and infarction size, respectively.
Conclusion: Cerebral microbleeds, NIHSS, and infarction size were identified
as HT predictors. The best predicting models were RFC and GBC capable
of capturing nonlinear interaction between predictors. Predictor interaction
suggests a dynamic, rather than, fixed cuto risk value for any of
these predictors.
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