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مجلة الزقازيق للبحوث الزراعية
مجلة الزقازيق للبحوث الزراعية
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| Abstract: |
This research aims to study the development of: the most important Egyptian economic trade balances, the development of the value of exports and imports and the deficit of potato yield in Egypt, the development of the quantity of production, the quantity of exports and consumption, and the loss and self-sufficiency of potatoes in Egypt, as well as an estimation of the relative importance of Egypt's exports of potatoes to the European common market, Estimating the indicators of economic stability and competitiveness of Egyptian exports of potatoes, as well as studying the geographical distribution of the quantity and value of Egypt's exports of potatoes to the most important countries of the European Common Market, in addition to estimating the external demand function on Egyptian exports of potatoes in the European Common Market using the market participation model.analysis methods were used by estimating the general trend models, the most important of which is the linear model for each of the cultivated area, production, productivity, quantity, value and prices of exports. , The instability coefficient, and the calculation of the concentration coefficient (Gini coefficient). The market participation model was also used to estimate the demand function for potato exports.
The most important results were: The average value of total Egyptian exports amounted to about $ 24.21 billion, and the average value of total Egyptian imports amounted to about $ 55.51 billion, and the average value of Egyptian agricultural exports reached about $ 3.08 billion, and the average value of Egyptian agricultural imports amounted to about $ 9.83 billion. It was found that there is a deficit in the agricultural trade balance at an average of about 6.75 billion dollars, and the average value of Egyptian exports of potatoes amounted to about 120.89 million dollars, and the average value of Egyptian imports of potatoes reached about 192.55 million dollars, and the average amount of production of potatoes amounted to about 3027.83 thousand tons. The average availability for consumption of potatoes was 2565.59 thousand tons, and the average loss of potatoes was about 717.67 thousand tons, and it was found that the average rate of self-sufficiency of potatoes during the study period amounted to about 79.73%, and the average amount of exports of the potato crop to the European Common Market was about 180.74 thousand tons. The estimation of instability coefficients revealed that there is instability in every potato crop production and the quantity and value of total exports, and instability in the quantity and value of Egyptian potato exports to the primary market. And common hug
The results showed that the value of the regression coefficient in the estimated model for Greece, Italy and Germany amounted to -1.31, -0.103, -0.674 and this, and the price elasticity for the same countries also reached -0.28, -0.15, -0.27 (inelastic demand), meaning that the higher the price. Relative export, there was a decrease in the market share of potato exports, and this means that there is a possibility to increase the export price for Greece, Italy and Germany, and thus increase the export yield of potatoes, while the results in the same table indicated that the value of the regression coefficient in the estimated model for the United Kingdom and the Netherlands It reached 0.654, 0.556 and this confirms the existence of a direct relationship between the relative price of import and the market share of potatoes. This may be due to the lack of market saturation of the potato crop and the increase in internal demand
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