التحليل القياسى للصادرات المصرية من البرتقال باستخدام نموذج الجاذبية

Faculty Agriculture Year: 2018
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: محلة الفيوم للبحوث والتنمية الزراعية محلة الفيوم للبحوث والتنمية الزراعية Volume:
Keywords : التحليل القياسى للصادرات المصرية , البرتقال باستخدام    
Abstract:
The study investigated the relative importance of Egypt's exports of orange for fruit exports, agricultural exports and total exports during the period 2000-2016, Studying the development of quantity, value and export prices of Egypt's orange exports during the period 2000-2016, Studying the geographical distribution of Egypt's orange exports to the most important countries during the period 2000-2016,. Estimation of the Gravity Model for Egyptian Exports of Oranges during the period 2000 - 2016). The research was based on the published and unpublished secondary data issued by the system The Central Administration for Public Mobilization and Statistics and the computer database of the Agency, the Central Administration of Agricultural Economy of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), foreign trade publications, and some previous studies in this field. To achieve the objectives of the research, statistical, economic and statistical analysis methods were used through Estimation of the general trend models, the most important of which is the linear pattern of the cultivated area, production, productivity, quantity, value and export prices. The economic analysis was based on some indicators, the most important being the instability coefficient, (Gini coefficient), and the gravity model was used to determine the factors affecting Egyptian exports of oranges The instability coefficients of the total export volume of orange are found to be unstable. The instability coefficient for the average period reached 41.57 instability coefficients below in 2012 at a rate of about 11.60% and the highest in 2002 at about 70.30% Of the orange was unstable as the instability coefficient for the average period was about 50.87. The instability coefficient below was in 2011 at about 9.68% and the highest in 2002 at 86.91%. The instability coefficients of the total export value of orange were unstable, Uncertainty Resolution of the average period of about 23.07% and reached instability coefficient below in 2004 at a rate of about 1.09 and by 2009, about 63.44% rate.The results of the Gravity Model Test show that there is an inverse correlation between the quantity of orange exports and the total Egyptian GDP and the population of Egypt. This may lead to increased local demand for oranges with increased production and a positive correlation between the quantity of orange exports And each of the total national product of importing countries, and the number of population of those countries, that the more the population in the importing country increased the demand of the state on imports and thus increased the demand for Egyptian exports of potatoes, the existence of a direct relationship between the amount of orange exports and the volume of production of oranges may return that However, despite the increase in local production of oranges, the percentage of rejection of exported shipments increases every year with the strictness of the standards set for export and the spread of diseases in Egyptian oranges, especially fresh fruit fly disease, and a direct relationship between the quantity of exports of orange and export price where the increase in price to encourage Exporters found that the distance variable between Egypt and the countries importing the orange has a negative effect on Egypt's exports of oranges
   
     
 
       

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