Sensitivity Analysis of Economic Evaluation Parameters of Upgraded Rural Roads Projects

Faculty Engineering Year: 2015
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: Publication Publication Volume:
Keywords : Sensitivity Analysis , Economic Evaluation Parameters , Upgraded    
Abstract:
This paper presents a sensitivity analysis of the economic evaluation input parameters of the upgraded rural roads projects that includes construction cost, traffic growth rate and maintenance cost on the output parameters that includes Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of return (IRR). International experience didn’t specify specific limits or trends for the effect of them on the output parameters. So, the objective of this sensitivity analysis is defining the general trends and rates of effectiveness of each of them. To achieve the study objectives, forty three road sections were selected in four governorates in Upper Egypt; Menia, Fayoum, Assuit and Sohag to perform the sensitivity analysis. Results indicated that the NPV values decrease with the increase of the construction cost for all roads with approximately the same rate. A 5% unexpected increase in the cost causes the NPV to decline by about 0.6%. Roads that have lower positive NPV values may achieve negative NPV values if the construction cost unexpectedly increased by about 25%. The IRR values decreases with the increase of the construction cost. The rate of decrease of the IRR decreases as the construction cost increases. For roads that have IRR lower than 50%, the IRR percentage decreases as the construction cost increases with approximately constant rates. The NPV increases as the traffic growth rate increases; the increase in NPV is approximately constant for smaller growth rates while it is increasable for higher growth rates. The IRR values increases as the growth rate increases with approximately constant rates for all roads. Both of the NPV and IRR have approximately constant values with the change in maintenance cost escalation. The output parameters of the economic evaluation of roads are less sensitive to maintenance cost escalation.
   
     
 
       

Author Related Publications

  • Hassan Darwish Hasanien Darwish, "Investigation of the Effect of Adding Silica Fume on Asphalt Concrete Properties", Publication, 2018 More
  • Hassan Darwish Hasanien Darwish, "Comparative Study of Performance of Modified Asphalt Mixtures using different Traditional and Nano Additives", International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research (IJSER), 2018 More
  • Hassan Darwish Hasanien Darwish, "Finite Element Analysis of Performance of Asphalt Pavement Mixtures Modified using Nano Additives", International Journal of Scientific and Engineering Research (IJSER), 2019 More
  • Hassan Darwish Hasanien Darwish, "Effect of Non-Uniformity of Subgrade Soil on Asphalt Pavement Performance (A Case Study of Qena-Luxor West Desert Road)", International Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences (IJEAS), 2019 More
  • Hassan Darwish Hasanien Darwish, "Prediction of Pavement Performance using Artificial Intelligent System", Publication, 2008 More

Department Related Publications

  • Ahmed Elsayed Ali Mahmoud, "An Integrated Sustainable Construction Project’s Critical Success Factors (ISCSFs)", Sustainable Engineering and Science, 2021 More
  • Gamal Saber Ahmed Elfiky, "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021 More
  • Mohammed Ahmed Ali Alashkar , "Determination of local gravimetric geoid model over Egypt using LSC and FFT estimation techniques based on different satellite- and ground-based datasets", Taylor & Francis, 2021 More
  • Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Management of Construction Cost Contingency Covering Upside and Downside Risks.", Alexandria Engineering Journal (AEJ),, 2014 More
Tweet