Evaluation of project cost and schedule performance using fuzzy theory-based polynomial function

Faculty Engineering Year: 2020
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CONSTRUCTION MANAGEMENT جامعة الزقازيق Volume:
Keywords : Evaluation , project cost , schedule performance using    
Abstract:
Earned value method (EVM) is used for cost performance forecasting. But, it has not been used for time performance forecasting. Also, the extended methods to EVM for improving the time forecasting have some limitations and deterministic evaluation. Therefore, this research introduces an integrated tool called the fuzzy project performance evaluation (FPPE) system, which is mainly depending on fuzzy theory and polynomial function to evaluate the project performance forecasting (PPF) under uncertainties. Two actual projects are provided to demonstrate the advantages of FPPE system over traditional time forecasting methods (TTFMs). The goal to use the polynomial function is to obtain the best-fit curve that simulates the planned cumulative progress curve (PCPC) of a project. The best two degrees were 11 and 10 for the two Projects A and B respectively. Then, the best-fit curve is updated in the light of new work performed percent to obtain time forecasts, which have been compared against that produced by the critical path method. Such a comparative study reveals that the best-fit provided the most accurate time forecast with the lowest mean absolute percentage of error (MAPEa ¼ 0.73% and MAPEb ¼ 0.41%). Then, the next step is to incorporate the best-fit procedures into the fuzzy theory to develop the FPPE system, which can be used to help the contractors through detecting early warning points of project performance deterioration and then making corrective decisions. The new integrated system FPPE has been programmed in M-file for MATLAB software and it can be applied to all kind of projects because it works depending on the three EVM curves at the summary of project level.
   
     
 
       

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  • Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Estimating Cost Contingency for Highway Construction Projects Using Analytic Hierarchy Processes.", International Journal of Computer Science Issues (IJCSI), 2014 More
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Department Related Publications

  • Ahmed Hessien Mahmoud Mohamed Elyamany, "A Performance Evaluating Model For Construction Companies: Egyptian Case Study", ASCE, 2008 More
  • Mohamed Ismail Ahmed Amer, "Construction of Ameria Caisson in Egypt", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 1995 More
  • Ahmed Abdelaaty Gaballah Elsayaad, "Construction of Ameria Caisson in Egypt", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 1995 More
  • Ismaiel Abdelhamied Mohamed Basha, "Construction of Ameria Caisson in Egypt", Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE, 1995 More
  • Ahmed Hussien Ibrahim Mahmmoud, "Measuring Important Factors Affecting Construction Projects Duration", Journal of Al Azhar Univ. Eng. Sector, 2014 More
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