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Load Forecasting based on Grasshopper Optimization and a Multilayer Feed-forward Neural Network Using Regressive Approach
Faculty
Engineering
Year:
2020
Type of Publication:
ZU Hosted
Pages:
1-12
Authors:
Mohamed Talaat Mohamed Mostafa
Staff Zu Site
Abstract In Staff Site
Journal:
Energy Elsevier
Volume:
196
Keywords :
Load Forecasting based , Grasshopper Optimization , , Multilayer
Abstract:
This paper introduces a precise model for mid-term to short-term load forecasting (MTLF; STLF) that can be used to forecast loads at different hours and on different days of each month. The combined MT-STLF model was investigated to aid in power generation and electricity purchase planning. A hybrid model of a multilayer feed-forward neural network (MFFNN) and the grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA) was introduced to obtain high-accuracy results for the combined MT-STLF model. The MFFNN is prepared by processing the input layer and output layer and finally selecting a suitable number of hidden layers. The main steps in developing the model from the MFFNN include entering the data into the network, training the model and finally implementing the prediction process. The accuracy of the model obtained before using the GOA was lower than that after applying the GOA. Weather factors such as the temperature were used as inputs to the MFFNN during MT-STLF modelling to ensure high accuracy. In the proposed model, the temperature had a clear effect on the forecasted load. Additionally, there was a difference between the maximum and minimum loads in winter and summer months. A regressive model was introduced to determine the relations between the dependent variable (the load) and the independent variables that affect the load, such as the temperature. The regressive model used in the paper highlights the effect of weather factors, such as the temperature, humidity ratio, cloud cover and wind speed, on the hourly load. The load in the regressive model used was described in terms of the independent variable (temperature) and the other factors that influence the load.
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