Optimization Method for Forecasting Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China

Faculty Science Year: 2020
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: Journal of Clinical Medicine MDPI Volume:
Keywords : Optimization Method , Forecasting Confirmed Cases , COVID-19    
Abstract:
In December 2019, a novel coronavirus, called COVID-19, was discovered in Wuhan, China, and has spread to different cities in China as well as to 24 other countries. The number of confirmed cases is increasing daily and reached 34,598 on 8 February 2020. In the current study, we present a new forecasting model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming ten days based on the previously confirmed cases recorded in China. The proposed model is an improved adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using an enhanced flower pollination algorithm (FPA) by using the salp swarm algorithm (SSA). In general, SSA is employed to improve FPA to avoid its drawbacks (i.e., getting trapped at the local optima). The main idea of the proposed model, called FPASSA-ANFIS, is to improve the performance of ANFIS by determining the parameters of ANFIS using FPASSA. The FPASSA-ANFIS model is evaluated using the World Health Organization (WHO) official data of the outbreak of the COVID-19 to forecast the confirmed cases of the upcoming ten days. More so, the FPASSA-ANFIS model is compared to several existing models, and it showed better performance in terms of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), Root Mean Squared Relative Error (RMSRE), coefficient of determination ( R2 ), and computing time. Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using two different datasets of weekly influenza confirmed cases in two countries, namely the USA and China. The outcomes also showed good performances
   
     
 
       

Author Related Publications

  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "A Grunwald–Letnikov based Manta ray foraging optimizer for global optimization and image segmentation", Elsevier, 2020 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "A novel hybrid gradient-based optimizer and grey wolf optimizer feature selection method for human activity recognition using smartphone sensors", MDPI, 2021 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "Efficient schemes for playout latency reduction in P2P-VOD systems", Springer, 2018 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "a novel algorithm for source localization based on nonnegative matrix factroization using \alpha 'beta divergence in chochleagram", WSEAS, 2013 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "Open cluster membership probability based on K-means clustering algorithm", Springer, 2016 More

Department Related Publications

  • Rodyna Ahmed Mahmoud, "Pre-Open Sets with Ideal", Scientific Research Platform (SRP), 2013 More
  • Rodyna Ahmed Mahmoud, "ON BCL-ALGEBRA", Council for Innovative Research, 2013 More
  • Yasser AbdelAziz Amer Tolba, "The improved (G’/G) - expansion method for constructing exact traveling wave solutions for a nonlinear PDE of nanobiosciences", USA, 2013 More
  • Alaa Hassan Attia Hassan, "A Unified Representation of Some Starlike and Convex Harmonic Functions with Negative Coefficients", AGH University of Science and Technology Press, Krakow 2013, Poland, 2013 More
  • Alaa Hassan Attia Hassan, "Generalizations of Hadamard Procuct of Certain Meromorphic Multivalent Functions with Positive Coefficients", Istanbul Universitesi, Turkey, 2013 More
Tweet