Deep learning-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak in Saudi Arabia

Faculty Science Year: 2020
Type of Publication: ZU Hosted Pages:
Authors:
Journal: Process Safety and Environmental Protection Elsevier Volume:
Keywords : Deep learning-based forecasting model , COVID-19 outbreak    
Abstract:
COVID-19 outbreak has become a global pandemic that affected more than 200 countries. Predicting the epidemiological behavior of this outbreak has a vital role to prevent its spreading. In this study, long short-term memory (LSTM) network as a robust deep learning model is proposed to forecast the number of total confirmed cases, total recovered cases, and total deaths in Saudi Arabia. The model was trained using the official reported data. The optimal values of the model’s parameters that maximize the forecasting accuracy were determined. The forecasting accuracy of the model was assessed using seven statistical assessment criteria, namely, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), efficiency coefficient (EC), overall index (OI), coefficient of variation (COV), and coefficient of residual mass (CRM). A reasonable forecasting accuracy was obtained. The forecasting accuracy of the suggested model is compared with two other models. The first is a statistical based model called autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The second is an artificial intelligence based model called nonlinear autoregressive artificial neural networks (NARANN). Finally, the proposed LSTM model was applied to forecast the total number of confirmed cases as well as deaths in six different countries; Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Spain, and USA. These countries have different epidemic trends as they apply different polices and have different age structure, weather, and culture. The social distancing and protection measures applied in different countries are assumed to be maintained during the forecasting period. The obtained results may help policymakers to control the disease and to put strategic plans to organize Hajj and the closure periods of the schools and universities.
   
     
 
       

Author Related Publications

  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "A Grunwald–Letnikov based Manta ray foraging optimizer for global optimization and image segmentation", Elsevier, 2020 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "A novel hybrid gradient-based optimizer and grey wolf optimizer feature selection method for human activity recognition using smartphone sensors", MDPI, 2021 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "Efficient schemes for playout latency reduction in P2P-VOD systems", Springer, 2018 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "a novel algorithm for source localization based on nonnegative matrix factroization using \alpha 'beta divergence in chochleagram", WSEAS, 2013 More
  • Mohamed El Sayed Ahmed Muhamed, "Open cluster membership probability based on K-means clustering algorithm", Springer, 2016 More

Department Related Publications

  • Heba Ibrahim Mustafa, "On lower and upper intension order relations by different cover concepts", Elsevier, 2011 More
  • Nagla Ameen Mohamed Hssan, "On the Reliability of Multi-State m-consecutive-at least-k-out-of-n: F Systems", Foundation of Computer Science (FCS), New York, USA, 2013 More
  • Elsayed Ibrahim Abdelgalil Mahmoud, "Normal Jacobi field on Riemannian manifold", SCIK Publishing Corporation, 2013 More
  • Alaa Hassan Attia Hassan, "Harmonic Univalent Functions with Varying Arguments Defined by Using Salagean Integral Operator", University of Alba Iulia, Romania, 2013 More
  • Yasser AbdelAziz Amer Tolba, "blind signal separation using adaptive generalized Gamma distribution", امريكا, 2013 More
Tweet