Journal: |
ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺔ ﺍﻟﻤﺼﺭﻴﺔ ﻟﻼﻗﺘﺼﺎﺩ ﺍﻟﺯﺭﺍﻋﻲ
الجمعية المصرية لللاقتصاد الزراعي
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– ﺍﻟﻤﺠﻠﺩ ﺍﻟﺜﺎﻤﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻌﺸﺭﻭﻥ
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Abstract: |
The Potential Impact of the Floating Exchange Rate Policy on the
Egyptian Trade Balance, Agricultural Trade and Food Trade
Dr. Ahmed Qadry M. Bahloul
Faculty of Technology and Development, University of Zagazig, Zagazig, Egypt. and,
The University of Umm Al-Qura, the Holly Mecca, KSA.
Abstract
Egypt has a long history of problems regarding its exchange rate with US
Dollar. Egypt decided to float its currency against the foreign currencies including the
US Dollar on 3/11/2016. There is a great controversy among the economists
concerning the policy impacts of the new policy. The research question was what is
the expected impact of floating the Egyptian pound exchange rate on the trade
balance, agricultural trade balance, and food trade balance? The research paper aims
at studying the possible impact of exchange rate policy and the of total trade balance,
agricultural trade balance, and food trade balance. Two econometric methods used for
the estimation of export and import elasticities, the Feasible generalized least squares
(FGLS) estimator and the Vector Error Autoregressive Models (VAR). The estimated
Marshall-Lerner condition ranged from 1.72 to 1.92 for the Egyptian total trade,
while ranged from 1.44 to 1.46 for the agricultural trade, while it is ranged from 0.64
to 2.09 in the case of food trade. The results indicated the validity of the Marshall-
Lerner condition (MLC) for the Egyptian total trade, agricultural trade, and food
trade. The new Egyptian floating exchange rate policy associated with institutional
reforms will probably has positive impacts on the Egyptian trade, the agricultural
trade, and the food trade.
JEL classifications: F4, Q17, Q18
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