Hydrological parameters and their effect on river supply

The aim of the present research is to make long-term forecasting of the River Nile at Aswan.Using the available data on the measured ten-day dischargeseries at the main stations on the River Nile branches, a naturalization procedure has been performed and a set of completely naturalized data has been obtained. The natural ten-daydischarge series at the key stations have been analyzed and the statistics for each series has been obtained.The linear association between the natural discharge series of each station and others on the same branch up to Aswan has been investigated using the Cross-Correlation Function. The time lag between stations has been computed and the time of water travelfor the different year periods has been also calculated.The effect of other geophysical phenomenon (sunspot numbers asan example) on the ten-day discharges of the River Nile has been investigated using cross-correlation.The model building strategy, Identification; Estimation; andDiagnostic checking, advocated by Box-Jenkins (1976), has beenapplied and a Multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive IntigratedMoving-average (ARIMA) model has been chosen and proved adequatelyfits the ten-day discharge series at Aswan.Taking into consideration the time lag between stations, the ten-day discharge series of River Atbara at mouth, Khartoum on the Blue Nile, and Malakal on the White Nile have been introduced in the model as regressors and a more refined model has been reached.